The rain has mostly left, and the numbers it left behind aren’t flattering. India’s 2026 southwest monsoon ended on 30 September with a 12.6% rainfall deficit, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). That makes it the weakest season since 2015.
The season didn’t fail evenly, though. Some states got soaked, others stayed parched, and the next few weeks matter just as much as the last four months did.
The headline numbers of the years
India received 759.4 mm of rain between 1 June and 30 September, against a long-period average of 868.6 mm. That’s about 87% of normal, which falls in the “deficient” category. One report ranked it as the fourth weakest monsoon since 2001.
None of this was a surprise. The IMD had forecast a subdued season from April, and its final estimate was 90% of the long-period average, the first such below-normal forecast in 11 years. The actual result came in slightly lower.
A season that stumbled from the start this year
June was the driest in about 12 years, with a deficit of around 40%. July brought a recovery, as the monsoon advanced quickly and the all-India gap narrowed to about 15%. Then August slipped again, helped along by a long break in the rains. September stayed weak too, at roughly 8% below normal according to one tally.
Skymet’s end-of-season review pointed to uneven distribution, few weather systems in June, a prolonged August break and an El Niño that kept strengthening. By August, El Niño was classed as strong. By September it reached the “very strong” category, with the key Niño 3.4 temperature anomaly climbing to around +3°C.
One thing helped. The season recorded 77 low-pressure-system days against a normal of about 57, which stopped the shortfall from becoming worse.
Who got the rain, and who didn’t
The regional split is where this season gets interesting.
- East and northeast India: A deficit of about 25.6%. Reports say this was the region’s driest monsoon since 1901, with 1,017.1 mm.
- Southern peninsula: Roughly 24.3% below normal. Its 542 mm was the fourth lowest total since 1901.
- Karnataka: A deficit of about 35%, described as its largest shortfall in decades.
- Northwest India: Only around 5.8% below normal, the mildest gap among the regions.
- Odisha: A surplus of about 30%, standing out as the clear exception.
The central India, the core monsoon region, held up better than most. Nearly half the country, though, remained rain-deficient.
Where is the monsoon right now?
The retreat began on 19 September from parts of west Rajasthan, two days later than the normal date of 17 September. On 5 October the IMD said the withdrawal would continue gradually from central and western parts over the next two to three days. Conditions are turning favourable for withdrawal from most of Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh, with parts of Telangana and Karnataka expected to follow in the coming days.
For north India, that means mostly dry weather with little major rain expected, and the slow drift to cooler mornings.
The October worry
The IMD expects October rainfall to be below normal too, at less than 85% of the long-period average, as El Niño continues to strengthen. That matters because October soil moisture helps determine how well the rabi crop gets started.
Crops such as wheat, mustard and chickpeas depend on residual moisture and reservoir water. With reservoir levels reported to be lower than last year in several places, rain-fed farms face the biggest risk. Irrigated areas in the north will cope better, but even there, groundwater and canal timing can become a worry.
What this means for ordinary households
A weak monsoon doesn’t automatically mean empty plates. India’s food stocks and irrigation networks soften the blow. But it can put pressure on the prices of vegetables and pulses, and it lowers rural incomes in the worst-hit districts, where crops are mostly rain-fed.
Two practical signals to watch over the next few weeks: the northeast monsoon over Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala, which usually provides October-to-December rain in the south, and any official guidance on crop support from state governments.
Forecasters have said a strong El Niño could persist into late 2026 or early 2027 and probably fade before next year’s monsoon arrives. Experts also warn that a strong El Niño doesn’t automatically guarantee another weak monsoon. So there’s no reason to assume next year will repeat this one. It’s simply too early to say.
Bottom line
The 2026 monsoon wasn’t a total failure, and it wasn’t a good year either. It was a lopsided season that left the east, northeast and south dry, spared parts of the northwest, and gave Odisha a bumper. The work now moves from counting rain to managing water.
FAQs
How much below normal was the 2026 monsoon?
About 12.6% below the long-period average.
Is it the weakest monsoon in history?
No. It’s the weakest since 2015, according to IMD data.
Has the monsoon withdrawn completely?
Not yet. The IMD says it’s withdrawing gradually from central and western India.
Will October be wet?
The IMD expects below-normal October rainfall.
Which area did best?
Odisha, with a surplus of around 30%.
Sources: Skymet Weather, NewsBytes, Free Press Journal.
